We have hit the All-star break and your Toronto Blue Jays are in 1st place in the AL East. How good have the Blue Jays been? They have won 16 series (10 season series), swept 7 series, lost 7 series and been swept 4 times. They have 26 comeback wins, which is one more than they had all last season. They are a remarkable 32-16 at home. The Blue Jays have a winning record in every month except April. George Springer has been outstanding this season, turning back the clock when it looked like his career was almost over. Springer is batting .285 with 16HR and 53RBI. In this edition of ten random thoughts, we'll look back on the 1st half of the season and look ahead to the 2nd half. Here are ten random thoughts from around the MLB.
1. Every year teams will deal with injuries. The most impactful one the Blue Jays dealt with was to Max Scherzer, who was supposed to be the team's 4th starter. However, he left his first start of the season with a lat injury that arose due to a nagging thumb injury that's been impacting him for a couple of years. For two months, the Blue Jays were basically running with a 3.5 man rotation with Bowden Francis not as good as last season. Francis was eventually put on the IL with shoulder inflammation. While Scherzer is back and pitching, his availability is guarded at best and who knows how long the thumb will last. He is struggling to throw much more than 70 pitches, which could get him 4-5 innings, depending on his efficiency. Scherzer is 1-0 with a 4.70ERA over 5 starts this season. The bullpen was missing Erik Swanson, who missed the first 2 months of the season with a shoulder issue (he was eventually DFA'd when he couldn't get his form back. Swanson was 0-2 with a 15.19ERA in 6 appearances this season. Yimi Garcia missed 6 weeks with his own shoulder issue and went right back on the IL after a mishap with the ice bath and spraining his ankle. This will impact the Blue Jays ability to get to closer Jeff Hoffman, who the team would rather only pitch the 9th inning. Garcia is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA over 22 appearances this season. Nick Sandlin, who missed a month with a lat strain, also went right back on the IL with inflammation in his right elbow. Here's hoping he doesn't need tommy john surgery. Sandlin is 0-2 with a 2.20ERA over 19 appearances this season. The most concerning injury has to be with Ryan Burr, who missed the first 3 months of the season with fatigue in his right shoulder, injured his shoulder again against the White Sox in just his second appearance of the season. Given his injury history with his shoulder, this may well end his season and potentially put his career in jeopardy
In terms of position players, the most impactful injury would be to CF Daulton Varsho, who missed the month of the season finishing the rehab on off-season shoulder surgery. Varsho played for a month before he injured his hamstring running from first to third. In his absence, Nathan Lukes (batting .276 with 5HR and 32RBI over 70 games and 181AB), Jonatan Clase (batting .210 with 2HR and 9RBI over 34 games and 100AB) and Myles Straw (batting .246 with 1HR and 16RBI over 78 games and 171AB) have split the playing time, but Varsho is superior defensively. Varsho is batting .207 wih 8 HR and 20 RBI over 24 games and 92AB. Anthony Santander, the big free agent signing of the off-season, played through hip and shoulder injuries for a while that were clearly affecting his performance at the plate, until he was finally shut down May 30. Santander is batting .179 with 6HR and 18RBI over 50 games and 184AB His absence benefits George Springer most since it allows him to DH more often. Springer, Addison Barger (batting .261 with 13HR and 40 RBI over 72 games and 245AB), and Lukes have been getting the reps in RF. Andres Gimenez has missed time with a quad strain and currently a sprained ankle. Gimenez is batting .218 with 5HR and 23 RBI over 61 games and 211AB Leo Jimenez (batting .118 with 1HR and 1RBI over 9 games and 17AB), Ernie Clement (batting .288 with 4HR and 25RBI over 94 games and 313AB) and Davis Schneider (batting .218 with 5HR and 11RBI over 34 games and 78AB) have been filling in.
2. A big improvement over last season has been the timey offense. The Blue Jays have been getting timely hits and have 25 comeback wins, more than they had all season. The veteran bats have been doing a lot of the heavy lifting with Bo Bichette and George Springer both having comeback seasons. Bichette and Springer lead the tean in RBI with 53RBI. Springer leads the team with 16HR. Captain Kirk leads the team in batting average with a solid .303 average (among qualified players). The Blue Jays aren't exactly hitting the cover off the ball, but they are much improved in getting timely hits. I love that they are utilizing the sac bunt. It led directly to a walk-off win against the Angels and can be a very effective hitting tool. Here's hoping they keep it going and don't regress in the second half
3. Three Blue Jays who impressed in the first half
- Tyler Heineman - The Blue Jays backup catcher has been clutch at the plate, batting .329 with 2HR and 13RBI. The speed demon even managed a career high 2 stolen bases. Heineman has primarily caught Chris Bassitt and Eric Lauer and will usually be the catcher in a day game after a night game. If Alejandro Kirk needs an extra day or two off down the stretch, the Blue Jays shouldn't hesitate to throw him in there behind the plate.
- Eric Lauer - The veteran lefty has provided the Blue Jays with a viable third starter after the Blue Jays were utilizing an opener and bulk inning pitcher when Max Scherzer went down with a nagging thumb injury and missed the better part of three months. This, combined with an ineffective Bowden Francis, taxed the bullpen. Lauer is 4-2 with a solid 2.78ERA over 14 appearances (8 starts). He should remain in the rotation the remainder of the season and I would give him some winter league action so his success carries over into next season.
- George Springer - Here's a veteran player who deserves votes for comeback player of the year. At the end of spring training, it looked like his career was very much on the back 9 and his time with the Blue Jays was nearing an end. Instead, he is playing like he's ten years younger, putting together his best season since 2019 when he batted .292 with 39 HR and 96 RBI for the Astros. This season, he is batting 270 with 16HR and 53RBI. Compare that to last season when the Blue Jays slugger hit just .220 with 19HR and 56RBI the whole season. Springer should be a candidate for comeback player of the year!
4. Three Blue jays who disappointed in the first half
- Richard Lovelady - Richard Loveday was so bad he went and changed his name (he asked to be called by his nickname Dicky). Loveday made the team out of spring training over Ryan Yarbrough. That turned out to be a poor decision. The soft-throwing lefty was 0-1 with an ugly 21.60ERA over 2 appearances and 1.2 innings. At least Yabrough could have been a long man, and like Lauer, he has experience as a starting pitcher
- Bowden Francis - After a solid 2024 season where he went 8-5 with a 3.30ERA over 27 appearances (13 starts). Francis had quality starts in 7 of his last 8 starts last season. He was hoping that last year's success would carry over to this season. Unfortunately that was not the case and Francis is 2-8 with a 6.08ERA over 14 starts. Francis was placed on the 15-day IL the day after his last start on May 22 with a right shoulder impingement. While trying to play through the injury could have impacted his performance, teams also likely adjusted to him after a season's worth odf video footage to find weaknesses. The main thing is to get Francis healthy first.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - The standards by which the Blue Jays franchise player is about to be judged is going to increase tenfold next year when his 14-year $500 million contract kicks in. The biggest criticisms of Vlad are that he has a tendency to make bad decisions on the base paths (he directly cost the Blue Jays the game on Thursday that would have tied the franchise win streak record of 11 games with 2 baserunning gaffes, trying to go from first to third on a pickoff throwing error and not trying to get into a rundown on a grounder hit to 1st base to allow Nathan Lukes to score). He is on pace to hit around 24 home runs and drive in 80ish runs, which would both be career low totals in a full 162 game schedule. His career high season needs to have an asterisk on it since he was playing home games in minor league stadiums for the bulk of it. Guerrero Jr. is capable of hitting 30-40 home runs, but too often hits the ball hard for a loud out. He's leading the league with 7 errors thus far this season. If Vlad wants to be paid what Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto are getting paid, he needs to start performing at their level and leading this team and being accountable when things are not going his way or the team's way.
5. To me, the pivotal moment of the season was April 25. The team entered the game a game under .500. In 2024, the Blue Jays faced the same scenario April 29, when they were at .500. They lost the game and never got to .500 again. They won on April 25, and yes, they did dip below .500 a few days later, but they swept the series in Seattle mid-May, swept the A's at the end of May and swept the Canada day week long homestand. The Blue Jays already have 27 comeback wins, 2 more than they had all season. Their home record is a sparkling 32-16, compared to a paltry 39-42 a year ago. This is a team that should challenge for the division title, and will at the very least have a wild card spot, unless things go really sideways in the second half
6. Vlad and Alejandro Kirk are going to be the Blue Jays reps at the all-star game. On merit, Kirk definitely deserves the honor (batting .303 with 7HR and 45RBI, thrown out 16 base runners). Vlad, not so much (leads the league with 7 errors, batting .277 with 12HR and 46RBI.). George Springer should be on the team but Aaron Boone obviously wasn't pleased with getting swept recently by the Blue Jays. Springer is batting .270 with 16HR and 53RBI. The selection of the starters amounts to a popular contest, sometimes, but the reserves should be considered more on merit, while also insuring every team has a rep. Springer could still be an injury replacement.
7. The next big event after the all-star break will be the trade deadline July 31 where teams will have the opportunity to add that missing piece to solidify their team. The Blue Jays biggest needs are to add a starting pitcher and perhaps a bullpen arm. Targets: Luis Severino (looked good first 4 innings Friday before things fell apart), Paul Skenes (leads NL with 2.01 ERA) (will likely need to part with a roster player to get him), David Bednar (12 saves, 2.70ERA), Felix Bautista (18 saves, 2.41 ERA) and Andrew Abbott (8-1, 2.07ERA). The Blue Jays could also move Bo Bichette at the deadline to avoid losing him for nothing in free agency
8. Blue jay team awards
- MVP: George Springer - leads team in HR (16) and RBI (53), 6th in hits (81) and 2nd in runs scored (53)
- Unsung hero - Alejandro Kirk - 3rd in hits (89), leads team with .309 batting average, 4th on team in RBI (44) and thrown out 16 base runners
- Best pitcher - Eric Lauer - 4-2 with a solid 2.78ERA over 14 appearances (8 starts)
- Best reliever - Brandon Little - 4-1, leads team with 2.08ERA; been a solid reliever from the left side
- Silver slugger - Bo Bichette - leads team in hits (108), 2nd in RBI (52), batting .281 and has 7HR
- most improved - Bichette - finally healthy after missing half the year last year with a nagging calf injury and a fractured finger, Bichette is back to being arguably the team's most consistent hitter (see above stats)
- gold glove - Nathan Lukes - just one error, has made some big plays in the outfield, especially CF in the absence of Daulton Varsho
9. MLB AWARDS
- AL MVP Aaron Judge- The Yankees slugger continues to be at or near the top of the league in most statistical categories. He's first in batting average (.355), 1st in hits (125), 1st in AL in runs scored (85), 2nd in HR (35) and 2nd in RBI (81). Cal Raleigh will certainly get some votes, but at the end of the day Judge is doing the damage with less protection behind him.
- NL MVP - Shohei Ohtani - the Japanese phenom is back to pitching after more than a year off following a second tommy john surgery September 19, 2023. In 5 starts totaling 9 innings, Ohtani has a 1.00ERA and 10 strikeouts. At the plate, he leads the NL in HR (32) and runs scored (91). His RBI production is down a bit (60) and he has a few less hits (102) but teams are starting to pitch around him, much like Barry Bonds at the height of his career. It's also possible the injury he suffered to his left shoulder sliding into 2nd base in game 1 of the world series might be impacting his performance at the plate. He's still a very big threat at the plate and very imprtant to the Dodgers fortunes
- AL Cy Young - Garrett Crochet - the Red Sox righty is 2nd in the AL in wins (10), tied for 2nd in ERA (2.23), and is 1st in strikeouts (160). He gives his team a chance to win every 5 days
- NL CY Young - Zack Wheeler - The veteran righty is tied fot 3rd in wins (9), tied for 2nd in ERA (2.36) and leads the NL in strikeouts. Going to be a hard sell to give the Cy Young to Paul Skenes, who has lost twice as many games as he has won
- AL Rookie of the year - A'S SS Jacob Wilson - leads AL among qualified rookies in batting average (.332), hits (113), runs scored (44) and tied for 1st in RBI (42). The A's are looking like the Orioles in their progression and could be a force to be reckoned with by the time they move into their new home in Las Vegas in a couple of years
- NL Rookie of the year - Marlins 1B Eric Wagman. Wagman is 1st in hits among qualified rookies (78) , 2nd in RBI (33), tied for 1st in runs scored (33). His average is a bit lower than you would like to see (.241) and his HR numbers aren't great either (5), but he is the best in the ajority of the categories so gets the nod at the halfway point of the season.
- AL Manager of the year - John Schneider - going from worst to first in a half season means pushing the right buttons with respect to the lineup and pitching choices. Is this team flawed and could they regress in the second half? Yes and yes. They will be going into the All-star break 1st in the AL east and Schneider deserves some of the credit.
- NL Manager of the year - Skip Schumaker of the Miami Marlins - The Marlins rise in the NL East wasn't as dramatic as the Blue Jays rise in the AL East and the Marlins are still a team likely to miss the playoffs. The Marlins, currently in 3rd place in the NL East, benefited from the Braves terrible start to the season and the Braves, now that they have their superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. back from a second ACL repait on his knee, could overtake Miami in the standings. Nonetheless, the Marlins could be a dangerous team in a few years since they have drafted high recently because they have been such a bad team. That will all depend on how they develop their prospects though and surrounding those prospects with some good veteran players.
10. Blue Jay of the first half - I have to give the nod to Springer. While Bo Bichette is having a comeback season himself, his off-year was due primarily to injuries that caused him to miss half the season. In the seasons prior to 2024, Bichette was arguably the Blue Jays most consistent and best hitter. Springer, on the other hand has been in decline for a few seasons now and it looked like his time with the Blue Jays might be ending. No question, making him a full-time DH has preserved his aging body and allowed him to focus on one thing, hitting. Springer is still a capable outfielder, and will likely play more in RF when he is in the field, especially when Daulton Varsho and Anthony Santander return from the IL.
